“Let Iowans do the hard work”
Wednesday, December 5th, 2007According to two economists studying bandwagon effects in sequential voting systems like the United States’ presidential primary system, “early voters have up to 20 times the influence of late voters in the selection of candidates.” From the abstract:
Candidates experience momentum effects when their performance in early states exceeds expectations. The empirical application focuses on the responses of daily polling data to the release of voting returns in the 2004 presidential primary. We find that Kerry benefited from surprising wins in early states and took votes away from Dean, who held a strong lead prior to the beginning of the primary season. The voting weights implied by the estimated model demonstrate that early voters have up to 20 times the influence of late voters in the selection of candidates, demonstrating a significant departure from the ideal of “one person, one vote.”
A Financial Times blogger defends the use of Iowans for the task of candidate filtering:
Isn’t it irrational for late voters to delegate the decision making to Iowa and New Hampshire? On an individual level, no. My vote is very unlikely to make a difference, so while I may vote because I want to have some skin in the game, or because I feel it’s my duty, I am hardly likely to spend too much time consulting the manifestos. Let Iowans do the hard work.
(link mine)
I’d love to read the full paper. Too bad it costs $5. I’m particularly interested to see how their model explains two recent instances of momentum shift in wide open candidate fields: Bill Clinton’s very poor start in 1992 and Bush’s despicable victory in South Carolina in 2000.
